
Football. Is. Back.
All 32 teams are back on the practice fields of training camp, optimism reigns supreme just about everywhere — outside of the greater Tampa Bay region, and we’re about to hit the road for our annual training camp tour. Stay tuned for details!
As we shift into overdrive, this week’s mailbag is loaded with pressing questions and insight from executives around the league, as well as from coaches and players from the podium at training camp, on Kenneth Walker’s impact on Andy Reid’s philosophy, the sleeper teams built to surprise, setting the expectations for the Indianapolis Colts, and the NFL Draft steal who I believe can make an immediate and significant impact.
Let’s get after it!
Who are your ‘darkhorse’ teams that could make a run this season? (Ahsatar on Threads)
Let’s just say that predicting dark horses is right in my wheelhouse!
Two years ago, I was extremely bullish on Jayden Daniels’ rookie season and predicted that the Washington Commanders could be a team to watch, capable of playing spoiler, and maybe winning a playoff game.
Washington went on to barnstorm to the NFC Championship Game, before getting run out of the building by Saquon Barkley and the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles.
Then, last summer, I was beyond all-in on the Denver Broncos and the Chicago Bears, respectively.
Bo Nix and one of the league’s stingiest defenses hosted the AFC Championship Game, while Caleb Williams and the cardiac Bears took the Los Angeles Rams to the brink in overtime of the Divisional round.
Not to brag, okay, maybe just a little … but the receipts are there.
So, who fits the bill this fall?
This season feels like it’s simultaneously going to be wide open as ever, but with more talent concentrated on the teams at the top, especially in the NFC — the Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys, if a revamped defense lives up to the investments Jerry Jones and Co. have made since last fall’s trade deadline.
Meanwhile, folks inside the league are extremely bullish on the Patriots leaving last season’s ‘soft schedule darlings’ narrative in the rearview mirror.
“I love Drake Maye as a quarterback,” an NFC Personnel Executive told me as part of our annual Between The Hashmarks survey ahead of the season kicking off. “And believe the A.J. Brown acquisition will make him even better.
“Brown being there will also open up the running game, as they’ll see lighter boxes due to his presence on the outside and the respect he commands. Mike Vrabel is a good head coach, who learned from one of the best. He can scheme up on defense with the best of them. New England has all the pieces in place for an excellent season.”
The Patriots, though, even carrying the anvil of Super Bowl losers around their neck, can’t be considered a dark horse.
These things are tough to spot, just ask our 11 panelists who submitted 11 different teams that could surprise to the upside.
Two teams, though, that I believe have the pieces to break through this fall, are the Tennessee Titans and the New York Giants.
We’ll start in Tennessee, where the Titans received a vote in our survey and multiple front office executives in multiple buildings throughout the offseason have casually expressed optimism that Robert Saleh and Brian Daboll’s arrival could spark a major uptick in second-year quarterback Cam Ward’s development.
“The Titans have added a lot of really good pieces who fit what they do,” an AFC East Personnel Executive tells Between The Hashmarks. “I think Robert Saleh has hired an excellent staff, and I believe in the quarterback. Cam Ward is going to take a jump, and I expect them to be solid enough on defense to win some games.”
Daboll, of course, was Josh Allen’s offensive coordinator when the Bills’ star went from reckless rookie gunslinger, passing for 2,074 yards with 10 touchdowns to 12 interceptions, to a 3,089-yard 2019 season with 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions that launched him into becoming a perennial MVP frontrunner.
The Titans also drafted freakish Ohio State wide receiver Carnell Tate, imported Wan’Dale Robinson, and all of his familiarity with Daboll’s scheme from the Giants, and Ward already has strong chemistry with rising tight end Gunnar Helm.
Not only is Robert Saleh an entire attitude adjustment on defense, but John Franklin-Myers adds some real teeth along the defensive line, and Alontae Taylor was one of the free agent prizes at cornerback, who landed in Nashville.
In a relatively wide-open division, Tennessee feels like a squad that can push for a .500 record and show meaningful progress by season’s end.
Meanwhile, the Giants seem primed to make a leap.
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Malik Nabers is back on the field at the Greenbrier, and so too is what could be one of the most disruptive collections of pass rushers this side of Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter.
Abdul Carter is drawing rave reviews from early training camp practices, Arvell Reese arrives, out of Ohio State, as the No. 5 overall pick in this spring’s NFL Draft, and Brian Burns is fresh off a career-high 16.5 sacks last season.
Meanwhile, Matt Nagy arrives as an adult in a room full of adults in the room on John Harbaugh’s coaching staff, tasked with not just getting Jaxson Dart to make strides but to avoid running to contact which New York’s previous staff seemed to look the other way at, as kamikazes coaching for their jobs, consequences and concussions be damned.
But, in addition to Harbaugh’s track record and Nagy’s system, the Giants dropped big-bodied and rising pass-catching tight end Isaiah Likely into Dart’s supporting cast and believe they’ve found an anchor opposite All-Pro Andrew Thomas in No. 10 overall pick Francis Mauigoa.
The Giants will be a better-coached team, a more talented roster, and if Dart can stay healthy, the pieces are in place around him for New York to make a real run at unseating the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East.
Parity remains the name of the game in the NFL, but we might look back in February at the Titans and Giants as two teams that climbed the ranks by season’s end.
Will Andy Reid commit to running the ball? I see this as the biggest question mark for the Chiefs, because it would protect Mahomes, opens up an average WR corps, and they have a lot of running backs in that backfield. The only question is, will Reid adapt? ( go-chiefs.bsky.social)
When Patrick Mahomes scrambled towards the sideline and threw the ball away deep downfield just before his knee buckled, Andy Reid and the Chiefs were forced into an age-old proposition.
Adapt or die.
MahomesMagic powered the Chiefs, and Reid, to three Super Bowl rings in five appearances, but even Mahomes’ heroics couldn’t save Kansas City from dropping eight of nine games decided by one score or less last offseason.
So, Reid, General Manager Brett Veach, and the Chiefs snapped the pendulum into motion by signing Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker to a three-year contract worth up to $45 million to not just introduce balance into the offense but add a back who elevates the play of his offensive line and is as elusive in the open field as he is dominant through the mesh.
After all, Walker’s 61 forced missed tackles ranked fifth in the league last season, his 33 Explosive Runs of 10 yards or more ranked sixth, according to PFF.
That punch is precisely what Reid's offense lacked last season.
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