Transcript 0:00 [rock music] All right, all right. Welcome on in to another episode of the Between the Hash Marks podcast. We are back. We are so back. 0:12 I'm Matt Lombardo, joined as always by my friend, my colleague, my mentor, the founder and purveyor of the Too Deep Zone on Substack, Mike Tanier joins us. You can follow him on Threads, @miketanier. 0:23 Mike, how's it going, my friend? You know, it's not gonna go, not going great for me. I'm gonna tell you why. Very upset about something. 0:29 I found, it turned out that the folks at Threads, at Threads Incorporated, had been giving custom Threads footballs to certain influential sports writers who have been using Threads a lot, and it turns out that you and I have not gotten these footballs. 0:44 Are, are, are you, are you sure about that? Are, are you sure? No. Because- Hey. Uh. 0:49 [laughs] Up to the camera, if you're listening, it is the official Threads Say More Season football, part of the Say More Season program that I've been involved in for the past few weeks on Threads, hope, helping to grow the NFL Threads community. 1:05 You Judas, you got one too? Unbelievable. Let me, let me explain to, to the listeners what, what's going on. I got on Threads about a year and a half ago. A year and a half ago, and I... 1:13 Oh, he's playing with the football now, look. 1:15 A year and a half ago, and I started doing a Threads follow list for NFL writers, and I've been trying to, i- in addition to, like, the big names, local names, bloggers, beat writers, some of the young people along the way, some of the Football Outsiders crew, have been constantly, constantly supporting them. 1:29 Very ardently supporting them for months and months and months, and I've been overlooked, and you got one, and a lot of my friends got one, and a lot of the strangers got one. You know, and you know what? 1:38 I'm gonna tell you something. Remember what Mr. Rogers said? Mr. Rogers said, "Look for the helpers." I'm a helper, damn it. I am a helper. I am a damn helper, and I did not get this, and it is a travesty. 1:50 It is a miscarriage of justice, and I, I don't know. I m- I might just leave Threads forever, tell you the truth. I'm gonna leave Threads forever. 1:56 You can't do that because you're the Threads ambassador, which I coined that phrase about nine to 12 months ago, that you are the Threads ambassador growing the Threads community. 2:04 Yeah, well, here's my invisible Threads ambassador football that I'm playing with right now. So I don't know what it's gonna take. I don't know why I was overlooked. Have, have you checked your DMs on Instagram? 2:15 Have you looked? My whats? Y- your DMs on Instagram, your direct messages on Instagram. Go- I have- Go look. Just, just go see. I have... I guess I have an Instagram. Hold on. Okay. 2:28 And while Mike's looking, just so you know, the, I, I am taking it on myself to shoulder this injustice and try to make it right. I've reached out to the people who run the program. 2:37 I have, I've tried to advocate on Mike's behalf for him to get a football, and even this morning, I was made aware from the head of the Threads Say More Season program that efforts have been made. I'm ready. 2:51 They've been made? "We are so appreciative of your investment in the NFL Threads community. As you can see by the above direct message sent on January 29th, 2024, that we have been trying to reach out to you." Huh. 3:08 That, that's even well before my agent, Whit- Whitney Holtzman, received a message inviting me into the program. That, that, that might even be six months before I received an in- invitation into this program. January? 3:23 I think I- Mike. I think I- Mike. I think I made a huge mistake, man. Mike. I made a huge mistake. I'm sorry. You know what the good news is? [laughs] Yes. 3:34 The good news is your mistake is not as big as the mistakes the Dallas Cowboys have made, dating back- [laughs]... to this past March to where they are today. Oh, my goodness. Transition, amazing. It has been... 3:46 It, it, it continues to be a remarkable week for the Cowboys. Every time I turn around, Micah Parsons is explaining his explanation to the previous explanation of the thing he said in the last series of explanations. 3:58 Yes, and if I were a beat reporter covering the Dallas Cowboys, this would be a goldmine of a week for me. 4:03 Quote, on Sunday in the locker room, this is exactly why they have 15-minute cooling-off periods for players after they get off the field- Yes... before the media is allowed into the locker room. Yeah. 4:14 Quote, "When it comes to coaching, Mike M- McCarthy can leave and go wherever he wants. 4:20 Guys I kind of feel bad for are guys like Zack Martin and guys who might be on their last year and on their way out of this situation because that's who I wanted to hold the trophy for. 4:29 You wanna win games and do great things with these type of legends who put in more time and work than Mike McCarthy ever did." [laughs] "So those are the kind of guys I have so much sympathy and hurt for," unquote. 4:40 Listen, Micah Parsons, product of the Nittany Lions, one of the greatest linebackers- Yeah... 4:45 to wear a Penn State uniform, Stick City, number 11, all of those things, you have to know better than to throw your head coach under the bus. I don't care that you just lost 34 to six. 4:57 I don't care that you just got run out of your own building. I don't care that this season came off the rails before it even started. 5:02 I don't care that your owner said he was going to go all in on this season, only to make his marquee addition be Ezekiel Elliott. I don't care about any of that. 5:12 You need to know better than to say something like this after a game. I, I, I love it. He, he's shoveling dirt on McCarthy's grave, um, which a- again, you shouldn't do it, but I, I... 5:21 He know- Mc- Parsons knows he's gonna get, like, a five-year contract extension and be there long after McCarthy's just another footnote next to Jason Garrett and everything in that t- in that team's history. 5:31 I- my, my favorite part, though, is... I, I was talking on the radio. The first part where he says p- McCarthy can go wherever he wants-I don't think he was actually hitting shade there. 5:39 I think what he was trying to say is, you know, McCarthy can coach until he's 80. Yes. You know, and, and, and Zach Martin's gonna be retired at the end of this. 5:45 He can go be an offensive coordinator for the Chicago Bears. He can go- Right... they're opening today, Shane Waldron gets fired by the Bears just before we come on the air to record the podcast. 5:55 He can go back to Green Bay and be a, a quarterback's assistant alongside Matt LaFleur in Green Bay- Yeah... with Jordan Love. There are any numerous situations Mike McCarthy can go to. So I understand- Yeah... 6:07 where he's going with that. But, but to basically say that the legends of the franchise who have put in more time and work than Mike McCarthy ever did, you, you're not doing your original message any favors there, Mike. 6:18 No, you're doing the Aaron Rodgers anyways. Yes. Which, again, when you keep hearing the smoke around Mike McCarthy, you know it's true. 6:24 You know he's, he's the guy, you know, he's on the, he's next to Doug Pederson getting the early bird special dinners when the other coaches are grinding film. 6:31 Uh, but yeah, that was, that was a pretty f- uh, loud shot across the bow. And there, there's all kind of things going on now, 'cause CeeDee Lamb is, uh, is discussing the sun glare. 6:40 Yeah, I was watching that game on Sunday, and of course, you know, I have the three TVs set up here, and I had Eagles, Cowboys on the main TV with the sound, and I'm watching it. 6:48 A- and you saw the pass into the end zone, and immediately when CeeDee Lamb didn't even react to the ball, you knew that he couldn't see it. And listen- Right... 6:57 I think the design of AT&T Stadium, it's my favorite stadium in the league as a media member to go and cover a game. Yeah. There's no place better in the league to watch the 1:00 window before a 4:30 Cowboys game. 7:08 It's a great setup. It's incredible, all of those things. And the photo that you see on, uh, ESPN.com's front page and on Bleacher Report of the sun beaming in- It's Oppenheimer... 7:19 it's the best photo you'll see all week. [laughs] But it did impact the game on Sunday. You could see that it impacted that play. 7:25 It's not gonna change the outcome of the game in a 34 to six blowout, but you took a touchdown off the board effectively for the Cowboys because Jerry loves the aesthetics of the sun beaming in for a cool photo op. 7:37 First of all, you've been seduced by the awesome food at Jerry World. The mac and cheese is epic. Yes, the m- e- epic mac and cheese. 7:44 Uh, secondly, I like the idea that they suggested a, a curtain, and I'm picturing a curtain like the curtain I have here- [laughs]... 7:52 uh, that just like, like a giant dr- and you un- you, you untie it, and it goes f- they flop in front of it like the curtain, curtains at your grandma's house. But, like, they should do something. 8:00 They should tint it, whatever, because it, it has impacted games in the past. It becomes this thing where even if you're a wagerer, you're like, "Okay, who has the ball in which quarter? 8:09 And maybe I have to do a prop or a quarterly prop based on which way the ball is going." And it's not the wind, it's not, you know, w- Lake Be- Lake Effect. It's something that's very easily correctable. 8:18 Yeah, I have the plan. I have the master plan. All right. All right. So I, I love the idea of the blackout curtain like you have in your office and like my daughter has in her bedroom. Right. 8:27 But, but get one of those or you get one of those, the, the doors that come down and, and we treat this like the old garage doors at Giants Stadium. Yeah. When the Cowboys have the ball, you lower the doors- [laughs]... 8:39 so that the offense can function. Mm. When the opponents have the ball, all of a sudden the doors open and you can take your photo op because it's a home field advantage after all- Right... 8:50 playing with the sun coming in. Now, you can say that it's probably not fair. 8:54 Was it ever fair that they opened up those windows when the Cowboys and Washington and the Eagles were kicking field goals in MetLife and closed them for the Giants? Was that ever fair? Put- Right... 9:05 have one of those portable windows, open and close them, and block it out for the Cowboys offense and let the opponents deal with it. Jerry would have too many scotches and forget to do it- [laughs]... 9:14 which would be great. 'Cause he, it would be him. He'd have the switch himself. He'd get, uh, Stephen would be getting drunk and play with it, click, click, click, click, click, click, up and down. 9:22 I like it though, 'cause it's like the old Twins MetLife air conditioner, it could go way back, when the Minnesota Twins would turn the air conditioners on and off when they were batting. I, I, I like that idea. 9:31 Um, and it's, it's not really a moot point 'cause, you know, the Cowboys are gonna play 4:00 games 'cause they're a Western team, et cetera. Yes. 9:37 It looks like they're losing a lot of their prime time games in the, in the weeks to come. They are, and, you know, can we please flex them out of this coming Monday night? 9:44 I mean, I'm not sure that I need to see that game in prime time i- in its own window. Can we flex them out of Thanksgiving? Because here's the thing, I would rather watch the Lions play twice. 9:54 [laughs] I'd rather watch the Detroit Lions backups. 9:57 I would rather see what Hendon Hooker can do with the backup wide receivers than watch and have to stomach and suffer through the appe- the, the dessert to that fantastic game, the, the, the, the Th- Thanksgiving game for the Detroit Lions, than suffer through Tommy DeVito against- [laughs]... 10:16 Cooper Rush or Trey Lance in Giants-Cowboys in the Thanksgiving 4:00 window. I like the idea of the Lions playing too. I can hear Dan Campbell, "Hell yeah, we're gonna take care of business. We're gonna play two teams. 10:26 We're gonna beat the Giants too." I could actually see that. Yeah, I almost want them to flex them, flip them. Just flip them. 10:33 Just make the, make the Cowboys the early game so that when we're done eating and cleaning up and everything else like that, we can watch the, the better game there. And- Yes... 10:40 you know, or, or do it for next year or, or, or whatever. I like that idea. But speaking of it, you said it's gonna be Trey Lance or Cooper Rush. Do you have- Yeah, and what's, what's the up- I'm gonna put it to you. 10:50 What is the upside for the Cowboys? 10:53 We've had this whole diatribe and debate a couple weeks ago about why the Giants should be benching Daniel Jones, obviously thinking about the $23.2 million injury guarantee that triggers if he gets hurt and can't pass a physical in the off-season. 11:06 Obviously thinking about the fact that the Giants are the owners of a top two pick in the NFL draft next spring if the season ends today. 11:14 What's the upside similarly for the Dallas Cowboys to play Cooper Rush the rest of the way? What, what, what is, what is so advantageous about playing Rush? Why is this even a conversation? 11:24 I think Trey Lance is just unplayably bad. 11:27 I think that's kind of what we're getting told over and over again, that the 49ers told us over and over and over again as he lost his job to person after person, as he comes into Dallas, and it's like in the pre-season they, they don't wanna play [laughs] him. 11:39 Yeah. And, and this situation comes in, and you look and say, "No, we gotta put Cooper Rush out there. Okay, he's fumbling every time he drops back to pass. We'll put Lance out there. 11:47 He's just gonna throw, close his eyes and throw YOLO balls down the field." Now, don't get me wrong, at this point-Evaluate Lance. 11:53 You have this athletic ability that you can, uh, uh, you, you could possibly exploit, and it's do or die. It's do or die. Cooper, Cooper Rush is no one's future, and if you can... 12:03 You discover that in game situations Lance can do A, B, C, then maybe you have something you can parlay into, into something valuable there. 12:09 But I don't care, I don't think the answer's on that Cowboys roster, and I think both of those teams [laughs] playing on Thanksgiving are gonna be looking at the- their situation and say, "What is our future? 12:19 Our future is not this coaching staff, our future is not this quarterback, and it's probably a big chunk- not a big chunk of the, um, roster that we put together." For sure. 12:26 And just for some background here, I still remember, and I will carry to my grave, the backlash from 49ers fans and fringe media members when I reported going into Trey Lance's second season that he had fallen out of favor with Kyle Shanahan and that coaching staff because of major concerns about his downfield accuracy. 12:44 And, you know, I did radio in San Francisco and had to strap on the body armor for the radio hates- [laughs]... and the, the arrows were being slung at me on social media, my character- Mm... was being assassinated. 12:55 Look, Trey Lance was never worthy of being a top three pick in the NFL Draft. That was over-evaluation on John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan's part based on a very limited sample size at North Dakota State. 13:06 But here's the reality for the Dallas Cowboys, Mike. Everybody knows what Cooper Rush is. He's a steady, veteran backup quarterback. Everybody knows what the Cowboys are at this point. 13:16 When you look around the landscape of the NFC, you're not playing for a playoff spot this year. 13:21 You, you might not be officially eliminated, but when you lost in that way to the Eagles in a game that was not even remotely competitive on Sunday- Right... your playoff aspirations died in the process. 13:31 So, so that, that's the reality that Jerry Jones, and Mike McCarthy, and the Cowboys are facing. So with that as the backdrop, why would you not play Trey Lance the rest of the way? 13:42 He has first round pedigree, and if we've seen anything in this league, it's that general managers and head coaches will trip over their own shoelaces to- Mm-hmm... 13:50 try to resurrect a quarterback who was chosen in the first round, showcase him a little bit, see what he can do. And if you lose, you're improving your draft position. 14:00 And you're not trying to tank, but if that's the outcome, it is what it is. But maybe he plays well enough that next April you can pick up the phone and say, "You know what? 14:07 We'll trade you Trey Lance for a fourth round pick or a fifth round pick. 14:11 We'll cut our losses here," but you get additional draft capital on a, on a roster that's going to look a lot different next year with Dak Prescott coming back and, and maybe re-signing some of your star players that you need to re-sign to bu- build and move forward from here. 14:24 By the way, the Cowboys playoff odds according to FTN Network, which uses analytics, 0.4%. Yeah. 14:31 I think their actual odds, odds, if you just say wins, losses, are higher than that, but if you factor in their quality of play, including the fact that Prescott's out there, 0.4%. 14:39 If I'm going to showcase Lance, I probably am gonna do it against Thank- in Thanksgiving- Yeah... against a Giants team that can't stop the run at all. 14:46 So you could do, oh, let's do a lot of zone read stuff, and let's do kind of what Bryce Young did against [laughs] the Giants on Sunday morning in Munich, where it's like, "Hey, I can complete a few passes here against this defense and look kind of okay." 14:56 So that might be... If there's anybody running the ship, and again, McCarthy might be at the spa right now, uh, but if there's anybody running the ship, that would be a way to pursue it. 15:05 Yeah, give Rush another start, turn around at Thanksgiving and say, "Hey, here's the Trey Lance experience." Yeah, that might, that might be the move, and it's not all doom and gloom across the NFC East. 15:14 We have a de facto NFC East championship game on Thursday night at Lincoln Financial Field. Mm-hmm. 15:19 You know, there, after a thrilling and enthralling AFC North showdown last week, thrown right down to the wire between the Ravens and Bengals, you have Eagles, Commanders at the Linc in Philadelphia, two teams that have sights set on the division title, and I think this is a legitimate barometer for both teams. 15:37 We're going to find out just how seriously to take the Eagles Super Bowl hopes in the- Yes... 15:43 NFC, whether you elevate them into the pantheon alongside the Detroit Lions, who are unequivocally in my mind the best team in football. 15:51 But we're also going to find out whether the Commanders have a claim to the NFC East race, 'cause if you sneak one out here, if you steal a game, a win against the Eagles in Philadelphia- Mm... 16:03 all of a sudden it's a little bit of a race and it validates a lot of what they're building there in Washington. 16:07 So for me, Mike, it's a litmus test and a barometer for these two teams, and in a lot of ways for this division. 16:14 Agreed, and it, it really goes both ways, 'cause the Eagles have not really beaten a rock solid opponent yet. Commanders are the first one. Eagles are also coming off of this. 16:22 Last off season, things started to come unglued right around now, and they went south amazingly. The Commanders have this now, uh, a propensity for the near miss against their quality opponents. 16:33 They go to the Ravens, they played moral victory [laughs] against the Ravens a couple weeks ago. Moral victory against the Steelers. I don't think they played as well as the final score looked, honestly, in that game. 16:41 There was a fake punt and some other stuff along the way. So if they keep doing that, obviously, you know, Daniels is good, and they're, they're rebuilding, and they're a wild card team, whatever. 16:50 But if, if it's near miss, near miss, near miss, they're telling you who they are. 16:53 If they get the win, it's different, and the Eagles can show you, yeah, like, this has not just been, oh, we keep playing the G- you know, the Cowboys and Giants over and over again. 17:01 So I was looking at it and putting some keys to the game. I asked you to put some keys to the game. For sure. I'm gonna start with the Eagles side of things, and keep it very simple. 17:10 I don't want any Nick Sirianni own goals, and that basically comes down to the fourth down, 17:17 complete random gener- it's not analytics, 'cause he's going opposite analytics almost every single time here, but this random idea generator that generally leads to a snowballing mistake, 'cause I think, for example, the Jaguars game would not have been as close if not for those. 17:30 I think the Saints would've been an easy win for the Eagles if not for those. And those are a potential nerfing for a team that I think is improving week in, and week in, and week out. 17:38 I don't wanna see that at allSo I think you actually follow the Eagles a lot closer than I do. What, what, what do you think you can safeguard yourself against those sort of own goals and mistakes? 17:48 Is it having a, a, a louder voice in the ear for, for Kevin Moore's perspective? 17:54 I- is it just eliminating and, and outplaying your opponents to the point where those decisions don't come into play where they make such an impact? What, what's the... 18:02 What is the guardrail, for lack of a better term, against Nick Sirianni coaching his way from a win to a loss? 18:08 Having Jeffrey Lurie scream at him on the phone for a solid hour, because he's the head coach, it's fourth down. Yeah. So Kellen Moore can suggest, suggest, suggest. 18:16 If they're having a little power struggle or anything like that, Sirianni wins, he's the head coach, fourth down is his thing. 18:21 He has to come to the Lord of his own accord, or his bosses, his superiors have to do it for him. I think he listens to his analytics department. I think they can help a little bit, but you're right. 18:32 One of the things is coast past your opponent so you have a margin for error. That's what happened against the Jaguars. You have that marge- margin for error. 18:39 I don't know if they're good enough- Oh, and they took advantage of that margin for error, too, until Nickobe Dean intercepted that ball down in the red zone. 18:44 I mean, it looked like that could've been heading, heading south pretty quickly as well. Absolutely, but that's kind of what you have to do there. 18:51 If Sirianni's gonna keep doing things his own way, 58-yard field goal one time, fourth and four, go for it the next time even though you're closer, whatever, the Eagles have to live with that, but it's going to cost them an important game if they don't. 19:04 I think the biggest key is just continuing the trend that we've seen from the Eagles defense over the last three or four weeks of this season, and that is sacking Jayden Daniels multiple times. 19:14 Washington is just four and four when Daniels is sacked two times or more throughout the course of a game. 19:19 And as we saw on, on Sunday against the Steelers, one of the penultimate plays of the game, TJ Watt just barely nudges the arm of Jayden Daniels on second and nine. 19:31 If that pass is completed along the sideline with room to spare, the outcome of that game might be different. 19:37 So I think that when you're playing a rookie quarterback, if you can sack him two, three, four times, it's not just about the sacks. You, you're suddenly taking him off of his game, taking him out of his comfort zone. 19:48 Right. You're changing the way that, uh, th- they have to... Kliff Kingsbury has to call the game plan because you're playing behind the sticks, which might force them into some mistakes and create some turnovers. 19:58 Mike, over the last three games, the Eagles have scored 33 points off of turnovers. So i- if- Right... the defense continues what they've been doing, then obviously it's gonna be a bit of an uphill battle for Washington. 20:09 Right. The pass rush has improved. The secondary has improved considerably as Quin, Quinyon Mitchell continues to grow. 20:15 Well, well, and, and part of it is, you say, if you keep them behind the sticks, you get more sack opportunities, and if you get more sack opportunities, you keep them behind the sticks. 20:22 And one thing the Steelers are very good at, cutting off all the misdirection plays, all the zone read stuff, all the little flat passes, stuff like that. 20:29 The Eagles have to do more of that and say, "Stand toe to toe with us with no zone read t- read type stuff and play football, and we'll see exactly how many decisions Daniels can make in those situations," 'cause I think that that's a part of his game that's not there yet. 20:41 Right. And that's a part of the game you can exploit. So which w- Let's, let's switch gears here. Let's go to the Commanders. 20:46 What are the keys for Washington to pull off the win, pull off the upset and, uh, stake their claim to the NFC East? Well, they went out and they traded for Marshon Lattimore from the Saints. Very good cornerback. 20:56 It turns out Marshon Lattimore had an actual hamstring injury, not a we're saving him for the trade deadline injury, and I think everyone knew this, but sometimes it's tricky at the date. 21:05 Trade deadline guys get miraculously better when they move to contenders. Lattimore was actually hurt. Um, they need him. 21:12 Obviously, when you're facing the Eagles, you need to be able to, uh, uh, cover Brown and S- and Smitty one on one. They don't really have the bodies to do that without Lattimore in the secondary. 21:21 I don't know if he comes back this week, but they're gonna need him. There's another Eagles game coming up. Yeah. And the Commanders are gonna need him in the weeks to come. 21:28 But if he comes back this week, that's a big benefit because it prevents the Eagles from doing their ultra-simplified Saquon, Smitty, Brown, Hurts, nothing else, and we can just beat you with that combination. 21:39 You can't do that if Lattimore is, is locking down a receiver. Yeah, I wrote a few weeks ago that A.J. Brown is the most important player on that Eagles roster. Yeah. 21:46 He's played like it, and when he's involved and he's a big play machine, all of a sudden that offense functions at its highest level. So I'm with you. If Lattimore is out there, and even if you travel him with A.J. 21:55 Brown, uh, and, and you take that aspect away, all of a sudden the Eagles offense looks a little bit different. I think it's a little bit simpler for me, Mike, for Washington. 22:03 It, it, it's eliminate the turnovers, protect the football, you know? 22:07 You, you saw through the first half of that game on Sunday against the Steelers when Austin Ekeler is, is just dictating what you're doing to defenses in the running game, and you take some of that pressure off of Daniels and you protect the football, you're gonna be in decent shape. 22:21 A- a- and that 33 points off turnovers over three games, that, that's a legitimate number for the Eagles and, you know, th- that, that, that can swing the outcome of a close game. 22:29 Right, and the, and the Commanders have done a great job avoiding fumbles early in the season, and avoiding interceptions for a rookie quarterback, certainly. 22:35 Um, had a couple of, a, a special teams fumble that was a d- disaster and an almost disaster. Alamada's a chaos, he's not your best choice as a punt returner. He's a little shaky back there. 22:45 Any time that the Eagles can force a turnover there, I think that's gonna be a win for them. For sure. And let's switch gears over to the AFC, where Monday night, uh, where, where did this Dolphins offense come from? 22:56 I mean, that first drive, it was like... Y- you know when you're watching or listening to a podcast and they're speaking in 1X speed, but then you, you zoom it up to 2X- [laughs]... and they talk a lot faster? 23:07 That's what I felt like I was watching with Devin Achan and, and that offense. It was like they were on one and a half X or 2X speed- Mm-hmm... against the Los Angeles Rams on Monday night. 23:18 The offense seems to have magically found its footing again. As long as Tua Tagovailoa is out there, they seem to be fine. They seem to have all the speed and explosiveness you need. Right. 23:28 Seems like they're still on the fringes and, and they aren't dead yet in the AFC. They aren't dead yet. I'm gonna try and pull up their playoff odds. I know that there was a, a shift in them. 23:38 Uh, they are up-Two, I have so many windows open, I can't f- I cannot find it And we know one window that's not, that's your Instagram DMs. And my Instagram window has never been open. Okay, I cannot find this at all. 23:51 Wait, found it. Uh, they are now at 22.5% to make the playoffs. They're still behind the eight ball. Like you said, Tagovailoa's return has made the offense functional again. It's the speed. 24:02 They also have, they can downshift. They can just do a primitive running game now. 24:07 In the past, when the Dolphins ran the ball, it was fake handoff here, fake handoff there, everybody's all over the place, and then you give it to A-Chan to try and burst a 30-yarder. 24:16 Now they can kind of line up and, like, offset I and run power and, and, and hand it to you. They did that against the Bills all game. They did that a, a good bit against the Rams. Their defense 24:26 against the Rams was surprising. That's the part that surprised me. Yeah. Yeah. The pass rush was very good, coverage in the secondary was very good. 24:33 The Rams were like, "Oh, we gotta get, we get to the 40 and we kick a field goal." W- time after time after time. Now, I don't, now if you look at the Dolphins' schedule, it's winnable down the road. 24:43 They've got the two Jets games, they've got a Browns game, they've got another Patriots game. Jets are cooked, by the way. They're done. The Jets are cooked, right. And, and it's a matter of how big the Quitzilla is. 24:52 Yes. So it could be epic, like, they come on the field in, in bark loungers and just go, "Ah." Like, that, that's the level Quitzilla could be there. 25:00 But I was trying to look at teams I thought was gonna make a playoff run. I think that the Dolphins have pushed themselves too far in the, behind the eight ball, so to speak. 25:08 I love the concept of this, by the way, the concept of the losing team, the team with the losing record that can make a run to the playoffs. I, I love the thought, the thought exercise here. Yeah. 25:18 Because, and the, and the reason why, and I'm working on something for the Two Deep Zone, it's just like, man, Ravens are in the playoffs, Chiefs are in the playoffs, Lions are in the playoffs, 25:27 Eagles and Commanders are in the playoffs, [laughs] probably- Yeah, probably... no matter what happens. 25:30 Uh, yeah, a- and you start making that list, and also then you start, oh, Jets are eliminated, uh, you know, Jaguars are eliminated. 25:35 There's, like, this, like, eight team group that's, like, going for, like, the wild cards, and there's where, that's where all the, the action is, and the Dolphins are in there. 25:43 The team I keep looking at, and Aaron Schatz keeps reminding me not to sleep on, of all of them- You stole mine, by the way. I, I saw- Oh... the breakdown, I saw, I saw the outline. You stole my pick. I love the pick. 25:54 Oh, okay. Well now it's- Give it to the people. Give it to the people. Well g- you give it, since it was your- You give it. You give it. You picked it. All right. Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Yes. Yes. Schedule. 26:04 From after the bye, they're on a bye, at Giants, at Panthers, Raiders, at Chargers. That's the tough game, folks- Yes... at Chargers, at Cowboys, Panthers, Saints. That's a s- that could be a 7 and 0 run. 26:21 If that's a 7- I was gonna say, a, a 6 and 1 very well might be the floor- Yeah... um, for them in that case. They actually have, the Buccaneers actually have the easiest remaining strength of schedule. 26:32 Their opponents have a winning percentage of, get this Mike, just 328. [laughs] It's like the, the non-conference schedule of, like, Clemson or something like that, you know? 26:44 [laughs] Well, Al- Alabama gets to play Mercy. They get to play Mercy College on Saturday, so yes, it's, it's like playing Mercy and Old Dominion and, uh, Little Sisters of the Poor and Mount Saint Mary's- Oh my God... 26:56 Drexel. Remember when in the old days, Al- Alabama played Mercy- Spit it down... on, like, September 6th? Yes. I know. Yeah, the SEC takes a break in November. 27:06 [laughs] The SEC decides that they're just gonna take a break. Ohio State's playing an undefeated Indiana, I believe, this weekend. You know, the Big 10 is playing all these colossal showdowns. 27:15 Two weeks ago, Penn State plays Ohio State- Mm-hmm... and then Alabama gets to play Mercy down the street. 27:20 [laughs] It's the second week of the college football playoff rankings, going into the third set of rankings, and Alabama just gets to pencil in that W. Unbelievable. Unbelievable. 27:29 [laughs] And the Bu- the Buccaneers are also penciling these Ws, and they're gonna get Mike Evans back. He's not making any definite statements, but he's, he sounds like he's on schedule. 27:37 He'll be back somewhere in there. And they've been playing tough despite the loss of him, despite the loss of Godwin. Uh, Wirfs, their l- left tackle's hurt, but he might be back in about two weeks. 27:47 That's a team that could go 10 and 7 very easily. 27:50 So after you sniped my selection without even knowing it, I went ahead and I went through every division, looked at all of the breakdowns, and I came away with another team, uh, the Cincinnati Bengals. Oh. 28:00 Because I look at Cincinnati right now, and there's just, there's too much talent on that roster. 28:06 I know what the record says they are, I know what the close losses indicate about them, but Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase are finally starting to heat up. They have the 15th easiest remaining strength of schedule- Okay... 28:17 which is the easiest remaining strength of schedule within the AFC North. And, you know, they still have to play the Steelers twice, which is suboptimal. 28:25 They still have to play the Chargers, they still have to play the Broncos, but they get the Titans, they get the Browns- Mm-hmm... they get the Cowboys. Yep. 28:33 I- if you can win five of those remaining games, even as competitive as the rest of the AFC is, I think you make a pretty strong case and position yourself pretty well to sneak in there, especially if at least one of those wins, and maybe two, come against the Pittsburgh Steelers. 28:50 Yeah, the trick with them is when you start looking at their tiebreakers, they need that Chargers win on Sunday. Yes. 28:56 And they need that, uh, that Broncos win, uh, i- in week 17, 'cause they're going to need the tiebreakers. 29:02 Like, the best scenario for them, they wind up at around nine and eight, and it's like, who do they got head-to-head? They're two and four in the conference, but all their w- losses are against, like, the Chiefs and all. 29:11 So they need to say, "Oh, we have a head-to-head tiebreaker against you." Steelers, too, as well. They need at least one, two wins there. 29:17 Uh, and I think I can get it, but I, I look at their talent, I look at who they are, and it, it came to me as I was working on this this morning, it's like the Cowboys are dead- Yes... 29:26 and the Bengals are the new Cowboys. They're the team where you look at their top five guys and you sayHow is this team four and six? 29:33 Then you look at the rest of their roster, and you look at their leadership and their ownership and their coaching staff, and you say, "Oh, it's not just slow starts, they underachieve because every- all of their value is centered on Chase and Burrow and Higgins and Hendrickson," and name your two, uh, your next two guys, and then that's it. 29:50 And I think that's why they are who they are. And the moment you put on the old 22 film of the defense, you realize, eh, yeah, may- may- maybe they are just a fringe 500 team at this point. 29:58 It's Hendrickson out there trying to clobber people, and yeah, there's other guys. Uh, Logan Wilson's a good ballplayer, Hinton's a good ballplayer. 30:04 But you start getting down to they can't tackle, they can't get off their blocks, they're not that good in coverage. And so, now the thing is that with that portfolio, the Broncos are a defense first team. Yes. 30:15 You know, so they're not gonna put up a million points on you. The Chargers are not gonna put up a million points on you. The Steelers are not gonna put up a million points on you. They're all- They might... first teams. 30:23 They might. They might, they might. They might, they might. They're, uh, they're better, they're trending in a, uh, a more positive direction. 30:27 If you can go out there and win some close games against those teams, then you're gonna get into the playoffs, so I could definitely see that for the Bengals. 30:33 For sure, and I just look at the AFC and I think there's a clear line of demarcation between the top four or five teams. 30:39 The Baltimore Ravens, the Kansas City Chiefs, the Pittsburgh Steelers have climbed into that pantheon. Um, a- a- and I think that then it's just about everybody else. 30:48 I mean, you're only going to get a division champion, the Houston Texans are the only team coming out of the AFC South. Yep. I, I don't even care what the Dolphins did on Monday night. 30:58 The only team coming out of the AFC East is going to be the Buffalo Bills. So then it comes down to, okay, if that's the case, where are you getting these wildcard teams from? Right. 31:08 And I think there's a very good chance that you're going to get three teams out of the AFC North, and depending on who they wind up playing, if they draw the Texans, who all of a sudden don't have Stefon Diggs- Mm-hmm... 31:20 all of a sudden, uh, you have a very inconsistent quarterback in C.J. Stroud. 31:26 If Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase decide to become postseason Joe Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase, you're not just talking about a team that makes the playoffs- Mm-hmm... they might be able to win a game or two. Right. 31:36 By the way, I was looking at some of the DraftKings, they have, like, stage of elimination props that you can look at, and so- Oh, nice... team eliminated in the division round, team eliminated wildcard round. 31:45 And you start playing with those scenarios in your head, like what about the wildcard team that s- catches the Texans so... 'Cause they look so vulnerable right now. Yeah. 31:53 And you can get these, like, plus 350, plus 450 odds on a team, like the Bengals or Chargers or somebody like that, or certainly the Steelers, 32:02 going out in the s- like specifically, in the second round after winning a playoff game, and those are fun to look at. 32:07 But you're right, what the Bengals have that the Buccaneers don't have is the availability of these playoff spots that are almost, like, to be given away, 'cause there's six teams in the AFC that are not going to do anything. 32:19 So you can get up- And so many of those teams were teams that we thought would be competitive. 32:22 If you asked me before the year, I thought that there was a really good chance that you'd have a three-horse race in the AFC East. Yes. 32:28 You talked to me about the AFC South, I didn't think the Jaguars were going to be as putrid and inconsistent as they are. Right. 32:35 You thought the Colts would take a step or two with Anthony Richardson, who now may never play another down in Indianapolis. 32:42 But it just comes down to the AFC North is loaded, the Steelers are better than we all thought that they were going to be, the Bills are the Bills, and the Chiefs are the Chiefs. 32:52 And then you kind of put the rest of the AFC into two separate bags. 32:55 Your, your garbage, you know, leave them out for the garbage bags on, on Thursday, and the, the playoff grab bag where you reach your hand in and decide who's gonna wind up being the two wildcard spots. 33:06 I'm trying to get the props right now on that playoff ma- uh, grab bag. You can get the Buccaneers plus 255 right now, uh, to make the playoffs. I kind of like that. The Bengals are at plus 130. 33:18 The odds are not as good, but the odds are not as good for a reason, for all the reasons you discussed, and I think there's meat on the bones there if you're comfortable with that Bengals team. 33:26 Take a plus 130 right now and they come in as the, the seventh wildcard because the Colts just fall apart, and the Broncos fall apart, and then, then, you know, you laugh all the way to the bank. Absolutely. 33:37 What's your circle of game for this Sunday? It's that, it's the Bengals against the Chargers, and I think the Bengals win this one. And you look at this Chargers team, they are six and three right now. They- Tell me how. 33:47 Tell me how they're six and three, because I watched that team on Sunday and they were efficient against the Tennessee Titans- [laughs]... 33:53 but, but what is driving the six and three start for the fighting Jim Harbaugh/Justin Herberts? 33:58 It is efficiency against the Tennessee Titans, and it's efficiency against the, uh, Cleveland Browns, and it's efficiency against the Spencer Rattler-led Saints. Uh, and it's eff- [laughs] you know, I, I could go on. 34:10 It's efficiency against the Carolina Panthers. That's what it is, it's very schedule oriented. Now, I'll say this, I think that they're defensively, they're playing well. Um, the running game is playing well. 34:20 I'm a Justin Herbert skeptic but, come on, Herbert is playing very well. When he's in the situation where all he's gotta do is manage these games against these bad opponents, he is well above that challenge. 34:28 He can do that along the way. They're cruising towards a wildcard spot, and they're not dead in the division. I don't think they're gonna make noise against the Chiefs. 34:36 They need this, 'cause they need some sense of validation, that this is more than just daisy stomping, here comes the next team that's, like, belly up, and, and Harbaugh's out there going, "Rah, rah, sis boom bah," and Harbaugh's w- I mean, and Herbert's like, "Well, I'm good, so I can, like, find Quinton Johnson a couple times and we win." 34:54 So I'm be looking at it, but I'm definitely looking at the Bengals, and I think that's the highest profile game this weekend, right? [laughs] Am I missing any higher profile games on Sunday? 35:03 You wanna talk about leaving meat on the bone, you might have sniped my pick for the losing team to make a playoff run, but you, you left the board open for me- Oh, yeah... and I thought I came away with the best one. 35:12 Uh, Steelers, Ravens. All right. We can talk all we want about Chiefs, Bills. We're gonna see that one again in the playoffs. Yeah, yeah. I think this is one of the greatest rivalries in all of sports. 35:21 B- uh, Ravens and Steelers, these two teams hate each other with a passion. Yeah. The fan bases can't stand one another, and right now you have two teams very worthy of living up to that rivalry. 35:33 Since Russell Wilson came in at quarterback, the Steelers are averaging 30.75 points per game. Hmm. 35:38 And I think that Derrick Henry, you, you and I are gonna debate this till we're blue in the face-I think Derrick Henry's name belongs in the MVP conversation, in the MVP race. Mm-hmm. But, and yes, I said what I said. 35:49 Yeah. [laughs] But, but what he does against the Steelers defense will be telling. 35:52 If he goes out and runs for 130 yards on that defense, and two touchdowns, and they win the game, all of a sudden you need to really start talking about Derrick Henry. 36:02 What Lamar Jackson does against that defense is going to be telling, and if Russell Wilson can take advantage and continue to build the chemistry with George Pickens and with Mike Williams, if they pull off this upset, we should start talking about the Steelers in that upper three team conversation in the AFC. 36:20 So I really can't wait for this one. That is a great one, and you're right. Yeah, I mean, I wanna watch Chiefs-Bills, and we'll come out of it like, "Yep, that was Chiefs-Bills. They're both really good. 36:26 We'll see it again in January, whatever, the 28th." Um, I think the Steelers are the fourth best team in the AFC right now. I think they're better than the Texans. I think they're demonstrating that weekend. Yes. 36:35 And, yeah, I think the Ravens are a better str- uh, a, a stronger team. Ravens are also more self-destructive. They are more... No team kills itself with penalties like the Baltimore Ravens. Especially late. 36:44 Uh, y- that defense, I, I can't fathom how talented that defense is, and how well they play for three quarters of a game. Mm-hmm. And you watch the fourth quarter a- and it's a clown show. Yeah. 36:55 And, and it's guys tripping all over themselves, missing assignments, blown coverages deep. Yes. Think of how many games so far this season that you thought were over, done with, and decided- [laughs]... 37:05 only to have Baker Mayfield lead the Bucs back. If, if Chris Godwin doesn't suffer the injury and they score on that drive, you're an onside kick away from a field goal- Right... try to win the game. 37:15 You know, it's happened a couple times to them throughout the course of this year. They almost coughed up Thursday night against the Bengals. But you- Yeah... 37:21 look at this team and the defense they have, I think it's a great match up against a suddenly high-flying and, and multiple, when you think about the passing game and what they're doing with Najee Harris a- and Jalen Warren, multiple offense with Russell Wilson and the Steelers. 37:37 Yeah. By the way, you can get Derrick Henry for offensive player of the year at minus 140 right now. Okay. Okay? That's, that's, that's your meat on the bone. Because he's not winning MVP. 37:47 So we can have all the MVP conversations you want. I will go over to Aaron Schatz, an MVP voter, and he'll be like, "No, it's gotta be a quarterback." 37:55 And he's not alone, 'cause then I'll call up another, and you can call up- Here it comes... your MVP voter. So, so, uh, I mean, I, I get it. I recognize it. 38:01 I, I, I appreciate it, but when you start talking about the MVP, I'm trying to find him right now. 38:05 He's- To me, he's the difference ma- A- again, th- this might age poorly in February, but to me, Derrick Henry's the difference between them winning that AFC Championship game last year against Kansas City, and going to a Super Bowl, and what happened, uh, you know, in the later stages of that game, and Mahomes' heroics mattering. 38:22 Yeah. A- and if that winds up playing out, if he winds up being the difference maker in an AFC title game, I know you don't vote on it in the post season- Right... he, he's the metaphorical MVP in my opinion. 38:32 The offensive player of the year. Uh, 'cause I'll say this. [laughs] The metaphorical MVP, otherwise known as the offensive player of the year. The, uh... 38:39 Uh, 'cause I agree, Henry's value is considerable, especially when you see this team seal out their wins in the fourth quarter and not make red zone mistakes. 38:46 They're the difference between the Ravens being sort of this wild card team and being this Super Bowl contender. Lamar Jackson is the difference between them being completely irrelevant in this world. [laughs] Fair. 38:59 Right. You know, and, and, and if you remove one of them, you know, the Ravens are still, like, one of the top five teams. 39:04 If you remove the other one, the Ravens don't exist in our minds, and that's why the MVP race goes the way it goes. For sure. Uh, before we go, quick shout-out here to my best man from my wedding, JR. 39:14 JR and his wife Jenna welcomed their third daughter on Monday. He's a diehard Giants fan who had to suffer through and endure the mess in Munich while his wife was in labor on Sunday morning. 39:25 Monday morning the baby arrives. Baby Alexandra Jo Kushner, 19 and a half inches, seven pounds, 4.6 ounces. Congratulations to JR and Jenna. Uh, it was a rough week for a lot of us. 39:36 A little bit of joy to celebrate on the way out the door. Absolutely. Congratulations to them. Uh, many happy returns. And, oh, by the way, Shane Waldron got fired. He did, yes. 39:46 [laughs] I was having, I was having lunch before I came on. Um, oh, well. [laughs] I mean, the Bears- Oh, well... are the Bear, the Bears are the Bears, right? And, and- Yeah... 39:53 you know, I, I asked a league source the other week, "Is Matt Eberflus on the hot seat?" And all he needed to tell me was, "Of course." Two words. All he needed. [laughs] They've had their scapegoat. 40:03 Now, I guess the over- Yeah... under before we get outta here, over under on Weeks- Yes... Eberflus is shown the door as well. 40:11 Well, he saved the rest of the season for himself because the r- at this point they'd be too gutted coaching staff-wise for, to, to get rid of him, and I'm not gonna stand for Shane Waldron saying he was doing a, a great job. 40:21 But two things can be true. Offensive coordinator can be struggling a little bit, and he can be absolutely the scapegoat for a head coach who's about to lose his job. No doubt. 40:29 Uh, what do you have coming up on the Two Deep Zone this week, Mike? [laughs] Tomorrow, Raiders tank watch, so you can see all about... 40:36 Speaking of scapegoating coaches, you can see what Antonio Pierce was up to before the bye, when he got rid of half of his coaching staff. 40:43 Um, and then the, I'm working on a thing on all of these playoff also-rans too, so some of the Bengals and Buccaneers that we've been talking about. 40:51 Kinda trying to, like, go through the field, look at their s- upcoming schedules and all, and see who's gonna win what. What do you got? Yeah. 40:57 As always, Football Friday Mailbag, where you can get your questions in @mattbombardonfl on Threads. All right. Uh, Threads, there's the logo. Uh, the, the football. All right. So ask the questions @mattbombardonfl. 41:08 [laughs] You can follow Mike Tanier on Threads @miketanier. Uh, but also I'm going to put together my list of the 10 players who will define the playoff race in the NFL. 41:18 Um, so you wanna stay tuned for that, check that out, either dropping later this week, early next week. 41:23 And just before we go, a sincere thank you to everybody out there who subscribes both to, uh, the Two Deep Zone by Mike Tanier, and, uh, yeah, Between the Hash Marks, uh, that I put out there. 41:33 Um, today just got word, over 100 paid subscribers. So I am now joining Mike Tanier as one of the best sellers on Substack. Three digit club. Love it. The three digit club. [laughs] Yeah, I gotta get my jacket. 41:46 I, I, I gotta get my three digit club- Oh, yeah, you need... Oh, oh, oh, they're giving away jackets now. Now they're giving away jackets. Well, Five-Timers Club on, on SNL. They get the Five-Timers Club jackets. 41:56 RedZone's giving you footballs, Substack is giving you jackets, and I'm sitting here drinking iced coffee out of a Adventure Fuel cup. Come on. Come on, people. I'm the expert. I'm the expert. 42:10 He's, he's @miketanier on Threads. I'm @mattbombardonfl. Uh, some housekeeping before we head out the door. 42:15 If you enjoy the podcast, please subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or leave us those five star reviews on Apple Podcasts to help grow the show, build us up in the algorithm. 42:24 We'll read the five star reviews on the podcast next week. Subscribe to the Two Deep Zone on Substack for Mike Tanier's excellent coverage, and subscribe to Between the Hash Marks by me on Substack as well. 42:35 Mike, this was a lot of fun. We'll talk to you next week. Absolutely. Take care. Enjoy your week, everyone.
